IMD forecasts 97% normal monsoon for 2018

Lester Mason
April 16, 2018

A normal south-west monsoon bodes well for the Indian economy and is likely to boost rural demand and alleviate farm distress.

About half of India's farm output comes from summer-sown kharif crops, such as rice, sugar, cotton, coarse cereals, which are dependent on South-west monsoon.

Why good rain is vital for Indian economy and what is its significance in the current political landscape? India had 95 per cent of the LPA rainfall a year ago - as against the first forecast of 96 per cent of the LPA (with an error margin of +/- 5 per cent). The region-based forecast will also be available only in June when the second assessment is done, Ramesh said. The IMD considers the Monsoon to be normal if the average rainfall is between 96 to 104 per cent of long period average.


The department, which used a combination of statistical and ocean-atmospheric models, said both showed rainfall this year would be normal.

In 2017, while IMD predicted 96 per cent average rainfall in its first forecast in April, the Monsoon season over the country as a whole was 97 per cent of its LPA. Last year, rainfall was close to normal at 95% of the LPA, while in 2016 rains were recorded at 97% of LPA. Less than 90 per cent LPA is termed "deficient" monsoon, and 90-96 per cent of the same is considered "below normal".

It said that normal rains are likely for the country, particularly East India, while the Southern Peninsula and parts of Northeast India could be at some risk of getting below normal rains. India had faced deficient rains during monsoon season in 2015 and 2014, making both these years drought years.

Other reports by Iphone Fresh

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