NOAA predicts a warmer, wetter California winter due to weak El Niño

Mindy Sparks
October 19, 2018

The Climate Prediction Center issues updates its 3-month outlooks once per month, NOAA said, and the next update for this winter is expected November 15.

Above-average rainfall is most likely northern Florida and southern Georgia this winter.

The organization's predictive maps placed ME in a sweeping band of orange, signifying that center forecasters believe the state is among those with a 40 percent to 50 percent chance of being "warmer than normal".

El Nino is an ocean-atmosphere climate interaction that is linked to periodic warming in sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

The northern Rockies, northern Plains, Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley are likely to see below-average precipitation, including snow.

Winter weather expert Judah Cohen, of the private company Atmospheric and Environmental Research, uses different indicators to predict winter for the National Science Foundation.

The El Nino year is not expected to be as strong as the 2015-16 event that brought significant snowfall. Due to this, above-average temperatures look likely for the northern and western United States, Alaska and Hawaii.

The Southeast, Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic can go any which way on temperature, Halpert said.

No place in the expected to experience cooler-than-average temperatures, according to NOAA.

"NOAA" s Winter 2018 temperature outlook for the United States.

Precipitation is expected to be above normal across the southern tier of the USA, extending up into the Mid-Atlantic.

Hawaii, Montana, Michigan, parts of Idaho, Wisconsin, northern Illinois, Indiana and OH are forecast to be drier than normal, with the biggest likelihood in Hawaii, Montana and Michigan.

- Warmer-than-normal conditions are anticipated across much of the northern and western USA, with the greatest likelihood in Alaska and from the Pacific Northwest to the Northern Plains.

But drought conditions are anticipated to improve in areas in Arizona and New Mexico, southern sections of Utah and Colorado, as well as the coastal Pacific Northwest and Central Plains, the agency said. They will provide you with estimated snowfall totals for the winter in Eastern Kentucky. Snow forecasts are generally not easily predicated more than a week in advance.

The Farmer's Almanac said that for its winter outlook, the temperatures are going to be cold with "plenty of snow".

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center updates the three-month outlook each month.

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