What Canadians need to know about Tuesday's United States midterm elections

Lloyd Doyle
November 6, 2018

On the other hand, the more Trump talks about imposing tariffs on China or passing an infrastructure bill, the more like an old Democrat he sounds.

Everything from a massive personal victory to impeachment proceedings is on the table for the US President.

One message falsely claiming to be from USA celebrity Oprah Winfrey called Stacey Abrams in Georgia "a poor man's Aunt Jemima" - referencing a controversial image of a black woman depicted as a slavery-era "mammy" figure - and other racial slurs.

Republicans have a "greater and greater chance" of keeping control of the House of Representatives, former White House press secretary Sean Spicer predicted Monday.

Singer Lee Greenwood's hit "God Bless the USA" has been a standard at President Donald Trump's events ever since he announced his campaign for president.

As much as the President will be celebrating, Kyle Kondik says he will also be relieved.

On average, a United States president experiences just over a seven percentage swing against his party during a mid-term. Watch these races closely: Kentucky, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Kansas, New Mexico, Washington State, California. Following the controversy surrounding the Senate confirmation of U.S. Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanuagh, the Generic Congressional Ballot was tied for two weeks, but then Democrats moved back ahead.

This outcome might not be all roses for the President though.

"It's all fragile. Everything I told you about, it can be undone and changed by the Democrats if they get in", Trump told supporters on a telephone "town hall" organized by his re-election campaign.

This is the most likely outcome, based not just on the polls but also on conversations with strategists in both parties.


As he departed Washington on Monday, he said Democrats' "weak stand" on the issue "means nothing but crime". But the angry tone has turned off swathes of Americans, giving Democrats confidence that they could capture at least the lower house of Congress, even if the Republicans are forecast to hold on to the Senate.

"My guess is they would find things that would paint the President in a negative light".

"A vote for any Democrat this November is a vote to really put extreme far left politicians in charge of Congress and to destroy your jobs, slash your incomes, undermine your safety and put illegal aliens before American citizens", Trump said during a rally on Sunday in Pensacola, Florida. And the level of interest in this midterm election is extraordinarily high, with 85 percent of Democrats and 82 percent of Republicans polled saying they are very interested in this election. Trump and his backers have called it "an invasion" - though the group of a few thousand people, including mothers and children, remains hundreds of miles away - and suggested without proof that there are criminals and terrorists in the crowd of those fleeing violence and poverty. Very tough. They'll need a systematic polling error in all of the races to take this one. "He thinks he's amusing when he says some of these things, but the consequences falling on the wrong ears are not amusing, they're tragic".

How it would happen: Let's assume we're underselling the size of the blue wave.

"Whether or not the deal is ratified or how quickly it's ratified, whether it has to be tweaked, will all be a negotiation between the 116th Congress - which could well be a different stripe than the president - and the Trump White House", Maryscott Greenwood, CEO of the Canadian American Business Council, told BNN Bloomberg in a recent television interview.

There is no option C - and the people of America will make that decision.

Problem number one, Mr Trump's agenda will likely be stalled until 2020.

That's because in every scenario there could be winners and losers in key sectors of the market, including banking, pharmaceuticals, companies that would benefit from government infrastructure projects and those that rely on healthy consumer spending, analysts say.

In that statement the President simultaneously rid himself of responsibility should the Democrats take back the House, and positioned himself as the saviour of the Senate. Projections gave Trump around a 1-in-6 shot at winning the presidency in 2016, and those are the odds FiveThirtyEight gives Democrats to win the Senate. "The economic environment should favor Republican incumbents". "He's just so irresponsible", said Albrecht, who worries Trump's embrace of the far-right is remaking his party.

Other reports by Iphone Fresh

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